Here are the The 2 reasons behind (I haven’t explained the 2nd one yet).
Hopefully some profited from my analysis, but as I am not yet well known in the markets I got 0 recognition from avoiding a -10%…
Don’t get me wrong I don’t want fame or likes. I want happy clients. I don’t even want any type of clients that’s why my prices might not be for everyone. Anyway you can check it here: Discount
The most important thing here is how I will show you why I am a pro. I don’t want to sound cocky I indeed will show you how humble I am or why I consider the market the ultimate “thing to listen”.
Look brieve story how by reading the tape I could notice something was off in the gold market.
Reading the tape on Gold: The analysis
Gold becomes somewhat crowded → Iran war 02/28/2026 → “correlation failure + change in tape”: behaves like S&P 500, but when the index dumps gold does it more → “news failure and tapes worsen” → strait of hormuz impedes gold to go through it so less offer should push the price just like what happened in oil. → eventually S&P 500 bounces as well as bonds and dollar/oil goes down that’s the playbook. Here gold should go up for two days, yet two of them closes in red → eventually bad news happen and gold drops a lot, but the tape told us before that.
The result?
Adapting systems
A novice trader would have short it based on my previous analysis. A more mature that understands the problem behind shorting assets like gold or stocks because of the natural inclination to rise over time would just have sold.
Me? I adapted systems without breaking rules by tranching the system day of which buys and sells, plus I backtested it:
Timming Luck and Dual Momentum – Backtest
I also made some videos on my Youtube Channel.
How I adapted systems? I reduced gold and added broad commodities to keep a neutral correlation to S&P500 since that is the main objective of my system 1 before any crises comes.
Why I don’t sell all gold. Because for maximum long term profits unless I am very very sure I prefer to find a way to adapt the rules rather than break them. I don’t trust my own opinions, but I have total conviction in my systems.
This is Key and it is what separates boys from man.
Why I don’t cut immediately and wait until the end of the month: 2 reasons.
1rst Reason
As a momentum trader… what is it your biggest fear?
From my backtests, choppy markets are way more common than crashes, and momentum coexists with mean reversion as both are proven factors in the markets.
This means that when an asset dumps, waiting for a bounce is usually more profitable than selling immediately. It increases potential max. returns without increasing the max. drawdown your strategy will have at a point, because selling too early in a choppy environment often just wrecks your trend system anyway.
There are two ways to hit a big drawdown:
- The asset becomes extremely choppy and your trend system fails.
- The asset crashes and you didn’t sell fast enough.
By adding a rule to close trades at the end of the month, you usually capture a bounce (thanks to mean reversion), which:
- reduces trading frequency
- protects against choppy markets that hurt returns more than crashes
People fear crashes more, but in practice, choppiness eats returns if you go out an in preparing for a crash.
Note: Not cutting early does increase annual volatility by 2% let’s say on average if you trade broad assets like SPY or GLD, but overall returns improves.
You might think of big fat tail risks like an asset dumping 12% in one day or 20%… you are right, we need to protect from those, but the answer relies in system diversification. Because again in momentum you can be “killed in two ways”: market crash or choppy markets. In long term bear markets we are the kings of the game.
2nd Reason
What is the alternative?
Full Post:
Dual Momentum Journey 
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