March 2026. Gold went from +30% to -5% YTD and today (03/23/2026) it has reached a -8% in Europe session. The smartest decision I have made with gold: why “only” sell half.
The question now is:
How long will it take to reach previous highs?
Wait, does it matter? As a trader that profits from trends NO!!
In my website I say:
Monte Carlo analysis: “IMPOSSIBLE” to lose money invested here during +3 years. That’s very common with momentum strategies.
Extreme cases go from 3-5 years.
In my case I diversify across different systems to try not to surpass the 3 years as my MC analysis shows.
Most assets can take +10 years to make new all time highs. This is common to all assets: bonds, gold, oil, real state, stocks, stock indices, etc. Open your chart tool and you will see.
The ways I see risk:
- Annualized volatility
- Max Drawdown – Max. Loss you will experience at some point
- Time underwater (TWU) – Amount of time your equity curve spends below its previous peak
The conclusion is Dual Momentum does not only offer bigger returns with less risk (because it concentrates at the right time), but it has a focus on reduced time underwater as it don’t invest in assets, but trends. And new trends are always emerging across different assets.
The only time both of my systems were holding cash since I backtested it was in late 2022 where nothing worked.
Dual Momentum Journey 
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